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Ethiopia, Eritrea: Tensions High in Border Dispute

Written by Administrator

Thursday, 29 November 2007

The Ethiopia-Eritrea Border Commission (EEBC) has threatened to rule Nov. 30 that the demarcation it has drawn between the two countries will stand -- a move that could provoke war between the two countries. War is not likely to come immediately, though, as Ethiopia remains heavily deployed in Somalia, and the commission, despite its threat, is likely to leave the door open for continued negotiations.

The internationally mandated EEBC, fed up with Ethiopian opposition to its current demarcation, could rule by Nov. 30, a date the commission floated a year ago, should either side -- particularly Ethiopia -- prove unwilling to conclude negotiations. Because Eritrea accepts the current ruling, it is unlikely to be the one to attack in an effort to force a resolution of the border dispute.

The two countries fought a 1998-2000 war -- which claimed an estimated 70,000 lives -- over the same border, with Ethiopia never really accepting Eritrea's independence and Eritrea not accepting the possibility of being once again under Ethiopia's yoke.

Regardless of the soaring tensions, Ethiopia is not likely to launch an immediate attack to force a redrawing of line, as it remains heavily involved in fighting an Islamist insurgency in Somalia, with 20,000 troops and its best commanders believed deployed in Somalia. However, should Ethiopia withdraw those troops and commanders to support an operation against Eritrea, Somalia's Transitional Federal Government under President Abdullahi Yusuf would very likely fall to the same Islamists -- the former Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) -- that controlled much of southern and central Somalia in 2006.

Ethiopia's invasion of Somalia in December 2006 -- which forced Ethiopia to continue its intervention in the country -- was aimed at preventing the anti-Ethiopian SICC from following through on its threat to fight, alongside the Ethiopian rebel group Ogaden National Liberation Front, to claim Ethiopia's Ogaden region, which is ethnic Somalian territory. The African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia -- currently around 1,500 Ugandans, though a Burundian contingent could deploy in December -- is effectively incapable of replacing the battle-hardened Ethiopians.

Although tensions will remain high, the EEBC's likely decision to opt for continued negotiations, coupled with Ethiopia's continuing preoccupation with fighting the Somalian insurgency, should keep a lid on the situation -- at least temporarily.

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