On the ground with the ONLF

Aid workers, activists and refugees in the barren southeastern Ethiopian region of Ogaden claim that government forces are pressing white-collar and blue-collar civilians into combat against rebels. Addis Ababa denies any wrong-doing in the region, dismissing claims from the likes of Human Rights Watch that Ethiopian troops are responsible for widespread abuses in Ogaden. A predominantly ethnic Somali area, Ogaden is home to a growing insurgent campaign demanding greater autonomy for the region. See images of the Ogaden National Liberation Front on the ground in this slideshow.

toD's view: As the recipient of $500 million of American aid, Ethiopia is Washington's closest ally in the Horn of Africa and the regional leader in tackling Islamist militancy. Its invasion of Somalia one year ago - to topple the Islamists Courts Union - received full US support. But like its American ally in Iraq and Afghanistan, Ethiopia is still bogged down in Somalia, where it faces an intensifying Islamist and tribal insurgency, as well as the growing hostility of a disillusioned populace.

As it grapples with overstretch in Somalia and the threat of war with its eternal foe Eritrea, Ethiopia also has problems at home. Ogaden is but one of the insurgency-hit regions in the country. Matters aren't helped by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi's blunt crackdown on political dissent in the country, nor by the excesses of an ill-equipped and poorly-trained military in remote areas like Ogaden.

The policy of pressing citizen militias - called "security committees" - into action seems to echo the controversial strategy of empowering local militias in Anbar province in Iraq to take on al-Qaida. In truth, it more closely resembles the disastrous establishment of such militias in parts of central India in order to fight Maoist rebels. These "Salwa Judum" civilian cadres have fast become a part of the problem, not the solution, in the restive Indian state of Chhattisgarh. Motivated in part by callous indifference and in part by lack of resources, the policy of forming such militias will also struggle to contain insurgency in Ogaden.

As a champion in the "war on terror", Ethiopia has been afforded the smokescreen of American funds and support. But should the humanitarian crisis in Ogaden degenerate to "Darfur-like" proportions - as some observers suggest it may - Ethiopia will have to correct its doddering path in the region.

Turkey bombs north Iraq

Turkish military aircraft struck targets across the north of Iraq over the weekend, in attacks allegedly blessed by Washington. Ankara is bent on flushing out Kurdish rebels of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) who maintain hideouts and bases in the rugged border regions of Kurdish Iraq.

toD's view: The Turkish offensive against northern in Iraq has, in operational terms, been long in the offing. Its goals are manifold and more political than strategic: (a) bending Washington more closely to Ankara's will, (b) proving to the Turkish public that the ruling AK party is not weak "on terrorists", as suggested by the military elite and elements of the hard nationalist opposition, and (c) placing added pressure on the autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq as key debates on Iraq's future - including over the disputed, oil-rich city of Kirkuk - take place.

Inevitably, military posturing has outweighed real military action. Ankara's political calculus still finds large-scale and sustained intervention too costly. Despite the weekend's bombing raid, Turkey's bark is likely to remain louder than its bite.

Russia ships nuclear fuel to Iran

The first shipment of Russian nuclear fuel arrived at Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, Iranian officials revealed today. Tehran insists that the plant, built with Russian aid, has purely civilian and peaceful ambitions.

toD's view: The Kremlin delayed transporting fuel to Bushehr through the year, as analysts suggested that Russia was unhappy with Iran's resistance to pressure from Washington and Europe on its nuclear program. The release of the US' National Intelligence Estimate, which claimed that Iran no longer had a nuclear weapons program, coupled with the success of direct IAEA-Iran negotiations and the failure of UN-channelled measures, has seriously weakened the confrontational EU-US position. This has freed Russia to pursue its long-term and more abiding policy of reinforcing the sovereignty of middle powers like Iran.

Escape in Pakistan

Rashid Rauf, a terrorist suspect and dual British-Pakistani citizen wanted in the UK in connection to last year's trans-Atlantic airplane bombing plot, has escaped from police custody in Pakistan. The loss of the suspect comes as an embarrassing blow to President Pervez Musharraf, who lifted emergency rule yesterday, declaring that Pakistani forces had successfully clamped down on Islamist insurgency and terrorism in the country.

toD's view: Details of the escape remain murky. After an in-court hearing, Rauf allegedly managed to slip off his handcuffs and pull a runner. Two policemen have been arrested for negligence or possible collaboration with Rauf. But that Rauf would want to attempt escape at all is puzzling; his lawyer insists that the suspect was willing to face extradition charges, in large part because the British case against him is so weak, and that Rauf was set to be granted bail. Family members have suggested that he may have been "disappeared". By whom and for what reason he would be disappeared is uncertain, but the inconsistencies of the incident suggest that there may be more to his escape than innocent incompetence.

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