Giving up on the Ethiopian regime it brought into Somalia 2006, the US in 2008 is moving towards securing its own vital strategic interests in Somalia through dialogue

The Americans are disconnecting themselves from the failed Ethiopian Occupation and seeking a "win-win" situation. Predictably, the EU, UN and Arab League are all following suit: disconnecting themselves from the failed occupation led by mass murdering Zinawi. The Ethiopian despot has only gotten humiliation and a pitiful TFG warlord stooge' alliance in disarray, which was meant to destroy a resistant Somalia forever but failed.

At the moment, the US government relying on its own initiatives is engaged in purposeful negotiations with the Somali ARS nationalist leadership on the coming post-Ethiopian situation; as well as laying the road map for a lasting settlement of the Somalia conflict. While most Somali Americans and the vast Somali Diaspora communities have welcomed America's new found engagement policy towards Somalia- a shift from the callous pro- Ethiopian propaganda to today discussing true and genuine end of the Ethiopian interference in all Somali affairs.

In this context, the Somali people's Resistance themselves, just like the Americans will have to pragmatically re-think of the long term future ties with the US. Surely America's past destructive role in facilitating the barbaric Ethiopian invasion cannot be easily overlooked nor forgotten. It is an established fact the Ethiopian minority Dictatorship of mass murderer Zinawi would never have invaded Somalia without relying on massive US military and diplomatic protection.

However, that is the past and there is a growing realization on the part of the Somali ARS leadership- much on the lines of the Vietnamese people and national leadership today-- to engage the US. Basic truth is for lasting peace to prevail in Somalia the country will need to have a future strategic military and economic cooperation with the United States. However much Somalis are mistrustful, it is America which must become part of the solution.

Somalis gets nothing by alienating the US as it changes its policies, instead of America being part of the problem as it has been with the failed Ethiopian occupation-genocide, why shouldn't it be part of a lasting solution? There is no question at all that such a strategic partnership with the US will be advantageous. In fact, having US-Somali relations is the only way of ensuring Somalia's long term development, permanent national stability, unity and of course economic reconstruction.

The self-evident necessities of such a strategic USA-Somalia partnership are obvious for the US officials as much as for the suffering Somali people. America is a dominant Superpower which intends (one way or another) to make use of Somalia geo-strategic location and vast untapped energy reserves.

Already the American government has stated as priority #1 to put its forces along Somalia's extensive coastline to serve as a military nexus between Africa, Middle East and Asia. Given the failure of the Ethiopians invasion, America is now open to having Somalia stabilized for good if the Somali nationalists can ensure free access.

To get Somalia stabilized the Americans know the Ethiopian occupation must end immediately, while at the same time the US wants a lasting political settlement between the Somali factions. This is the current American priority that is being pursued in the talks in Asmara: Ending the Ethiopian occupation, getting a Somali political settlement which will ensure that an independent US-friendly Somalia willing to open up the country's politics and natural resources.

Once "the right political conditions" have been secured through the hard nosed negotiations with the Somali nationalist opposition, the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia, the US will immediately put an end to the Ethiopian occupation. As soon as the Ethiopians leave, Somalia will become stabilized with US-UN blessing. America will promptly implement a "strategic partnership with the new Somalia government" one in which the new Somali national government headed by President Sheikh Sharif will approve of setting up joint US-Somali military training facilities for the Somali Army, Navy Forces as happened in the 1980s with the Russians and the US militaries in Somalia.

Moreover, the US presence will be secured along the Somali coast. In the economic sector the main development witnessed will be the return of large US-based oil companies (Chevron, ExxonMobil, Texaco) which had all early gained profitable concessions from the Siyad Barre government in late 1987-89. These US multinational corporations have been waiting for Somalia to be stabilize and will hence begin drilling the unexploited Somali natural gas and petroleum reserves, of course in joint ventures with the new Somali government.

There will be other US and European energy companies presently involved in the negotiations who will begin redeveloping the vast Somali iron, nickel, Bauxite reserves and the much sought after commodity of the 21st century next to oil -Uranium the largest concentration of Africa located in Galgaduuud region of Central Somalia. These economic and strategic interests are what motivate America's action- apart from religious-based ideological War on terrorism- in Somalia affairs.

Only Sheikh Sharif and the ARS can save Somalia!

Somalia can only be stabilized through the Somali ARS alliance. For this reason there is a unanimous across the broad consensus by the US-EU bloc and UN that it is Chairman Sheikh Sharif and broader ARS nationalists who are the ones capable of ending the Somali Civil war. Consequently, it is Chairman Sharif in particular who posses what the Western powers, especially America need in Somalia: the political capital, street credibility needed to bring about a favorable US role in ending Somalia's conflict. It was Sheikh Sharif and the ICU who pre-Ethiopian occupation began to develop Somalia's state institutions and more importantly moved Somalia from a divided clannish society towards a peaceful nation.

Thus, it is once again Sheikh Sharif of the ARS alliance who can muster the needed credibility to ensure Somalia's national unity, peace and reconciliation in the face of ongoing Ethiopian war crimes and unending tribal Civil War.

This is because America and the EU know that Chairman Sharif is the only one with precious personal credibility within the Somali Resistance movement, as well as the broader Somali society, Diaspora communities and clans who possess the necessary political charisma to unite the fractured Somalia. Likewise, for the United States Sheikh Sharif is the one who can seemingly execute its dual policies: a mutual military strategic partnership between Somalia and the United States; as well as regional cooperation between Somalia and neighboring countries even Ethiopia.

While securing reconciliation between Northern and Southern Somalia was not a priority for the US, it has become one nevertheless today. If there is to be peaceful future in an independent Somalia government, needless to say, it will come through a President Sheikh Sharif in 2008- apart from that there will only be failure, zero prospects that the US interests will come to fulfillment in Somalia.

Expect to see the anti-Ethiopian Resistance struggle grow further entrenched, exponentially expand to more territories taking on a life of its own. The "insurgency" as American once dubbed the anti-Ethiopian struggle will grow beyond Somalia's immediate borders, from the resistant Hawiye clans and local political parameters to consume the whole fragile multi-ethnic, multi-religious Horn of Africa region.

The last and critical victim will be none other than the Ethiopian concentration camp which will collapse to its bloody core! After the ashes, bloodbaths, state collapse, religious wars there will not be any delusional "Ethiopian regional bulwark" talk, there will be no grand US interests ever becoming secured in the Horn. What there will be instead is a complete and lasting meltdown, which will see multiplication of 10 Somalia's of today, that will greatly mushroom inside and beyond Ethiopia- which is presently taking shape as we speak.

Thus, the Americans and European powers know first hand what awaits them, what will come about to be much worse, more costly for them than ending the occupation in Somalia today- which anyway continues to collapse in Mogadishu alone!

Conclusion:

So for the Bush administration to pursue a practical approach to problems in Somalia they must end the Ethiopian occupation and any interference in Somalia's internal affairs.

To achieve a "win-win situation" for US interests in Somalia and the Horn of Africa region, the US will need to come to terms with its own Somali Nelson Mandela of 2008 that of Chairman Sheikh Sharif. The issue is not to the forefront( he is already leading Somali alive)- since Sharif happens to be the only Somali alive able to delivery everything for America while not tarnishing his credibility and grassroots support on the ground, as much as for the Somali people Sheikh Sharif is America's savior.

Today, Somalia is like the 1950s during the decolonization process. Like then Somalia is at a defining crossroads, the decision for the Western powers is between either keeping the Ethiopian occupation having constant political and regional instabilities and territorial disunity Vs securing regional peace through Somalia's independence. The only viable option is Somalia's peace to secure US strategic regional interests.

The only man up to the task is Chairman Sheikh Sharif. It is Sheikh Sharif who offers everything by way of a "win-win" outcome for the US, the Somali people and the region- all through his outstretch hands; while it is the US today who holds everything in its tight closed hands by way of ending the Ethiopian occupation-genocide, atrocities and mass displacement in Somalia. So the question left unanswered that everyone is left wondering about is:

Will the two hands, that of Somalia and America, get together in starting a mutual long-term strategic vision? Or will they keep on exchanging needless proxy blows, leaving behind a bitter legacy of suspicions, mass murder, anti-Americanism, regional hatred and mistrust of the US's goodwill; all of which is to say, will Somalia and America turn towards a new " win-win" partnership in 2008?

Dr. M. Omar Hashi
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