Examples & comparison of political & econonomical developments in seleceted Nations of Africa & Asia - What African nations have to do for achieving full nationalistic political and economic independence and why Museveni’s contribution to peace is paramount (Original Title by Teddy Cheeye - New Vision Online) ...

Museveni’s contribution to peace is paramount

Monday, 18th February, 2008

A local press last week carried a feature article in which the writer said he is sick with NRM repetitions that it brought peace at the expense of other national development. The writer says if peace means the kind of social economic backwardness prevailing in the country, he would rather not have that peace. He is equally unhappy with the peasants, who seem to support the Government even when they are in economic dilemma.

There is one economic theory President Yoweri Museveni discovered long ago, which makes him the supreme-economist of our time. In order to appreciate this point I would recommend two books, which came out last year. One is titled:“Bottom Billion” by Professor Paul Collier of the Department of Economics, at Oxford University. In this book, Collier writes about four traps which poor countries mainly in Africa need to get out in order to climb out of the one billion people bracket in the world ranked as the worst destitute. One of them is the “conflict trap”.

If a country is to develop, it needs to first of all get out of the Somalia, Liberia and Sierra Leone situation. The second book is titled: “Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium”, by Ronald Findlay and Kevin H. O’Rourke. It shows how, since historical time, countries which had a head start in military power also enjoyed global economic dividends, thus the befitting title of the book “Power and Plenty”.

Venice, for example, was a world financial centre in the 12th Century because it had a strong navy force which imposed navigation laws requiring all goods from Eurasia, entering western and northern Europe to go through Venice for taxation and distribution.

There is need to analyse issues in a broader historical perspective. Establishment of powerful government, which can impose peace in the country by hook or crook, is the first stage for any society to develop. This is the fundamental military-political and economic law, President Museveni discovered, analysed and executed, for which all African economists, or at least East African economists should forever be. Let me take this opportunity to also respond to some unanswered questions as a way of illustrating my point:

Ghana and South Korea:
Many economists have wondered why Ghana, which was at the same development levels with South Korea at the time of independence, now lags far behind South Korea, or why Nigeria, which was also at the same economic development level with Indonesia, has failed to measure up. Furthermore, there is now talk about how Africa has gained impressive economic growth. In my view, the answer is to be found in the level of instability.

South Korea got independence in 1948 and the leadership was in power for 13 years until 1961, when Gen. Pak Chung-hee took over.

Although Ghana gained independence in 1957, it became a republic and Nkrumah the President on July 1,1960. He was overthrown on February 24,1966, less than half the first years of the leadership in South Korea. While in South Korea, Gen. Pak had 18 years (1961-1979) of consolidating economic development, in Ghana 15 years (1966-1981) were characterised by six bloody coups.

Similarly, while South Korea has had five successive and democratically-elected presidents since 1981, Ghana has just managed to get the second democratically-elected president in the same period.

Nigeria and Indonesia:
The same can be said between Nigeria and Indonesia. Indonesia secured independence from the Dutch in 1950 under the leadership of Achmad Surkano, who ruled for 16 years, until Gen. Suharto overthrew him in 1966.

Nigeria got independence in 1960, organised first Presidential elections in 1964, and experienced a shocking coup in 1966.

Similarly, while Gen. Suharto ruled Indonesia for 35 years in which he consolidated economic development, Nigeria experienced 10 coups and was ruled mainly by military governments for 32 years (1966-1998), when Gen. Sani Abacha died.

Africa recent miracle development:
The financial press and economists have written a lot about Africa’s recent economic growth averaging about 5% for the last 10 years, even when financial assistance from developed countries has dwindled to sea levels.

In my view, one of the main contributing factors is that Africa has witnessed a more peaceful decade compared to previous decades of coups. For example, in only nine years, starting with Mobutu’s coup (1960) and ending with Somalia coup in 1969, Africa experienced 21 coups in which about 10 presidents were killed. Furthermore, while in mid 1970s half of African countries (26) were under coup leadership, in the 1980s there were only three coups. More recently (2001-2005), there were six failed coups and one successful one. Therefore, peace is paramount, for any development to take place.

That is why President Museveni’s discovery of the important link between power and plenty should be hailed as the greatest contribution to Africa struggle for genuine political and economic emancipation.

The first step is for a society to fist get out of the conflict trap. It took Europe 1945 years to get out of the war trap (end of World War II).

It took Britain many years of state-engineering before achieving industrial revolution in 1780.

After America shaped up 1839, it took it 47 years to economically take off (double income).

After Japan had became militarily a strong state in 1885, it took it 34 years to take off (double income per capita.

South Korea achieved statehood after 1948 years of struggles economically took off after 18 years (1966) China became unified strong sub-continent in 1945, and it took nearly 50 years (1994) of getting it economic fundamental right, which enable it to take off.

In my calculation, Uganda got its nationalistic political and economic independence in 1986 and took 20 years (2006) to start the journey of taking off.

I appeal to those who are impenitent with the delayed flight, that soon we shall be airborne.

The writer is the Director of Economic Affairs and Monitoring,
Office of the President

---