On the opposite side of the continent, the Ethio-Eritrean conflict has culminated into yet another surprising development.

Ethiopia has put all its weight to lemon out Eritrean tenacity to hold on to the Badme area. Eritrea has capitulated and accepted the OAU peace proposal to which it was strongly opposed until a few days ago. This indeed makes Eritrea look like a small rancher with a big hat. On the other hand, Ethiopia has no cause for celebration because if the OAU peace proposal is to take effect it will have to withdraw its army from Badme and allow a peacekeeping force overlook the area and demarcate the borders. Ethiopian presence in Badme may have to be limited to skeleton administrative level with little military presence if the preconditions for the proposed mediation efforts are to be met. In essence, therefore, Eritrean withdrawal from Badme puts the ball on Ethiopia’s court. Another reason that brings a grim picture to Ethiopian victory is the magnitude of its loss of human life and resource just to see the Eritreans out of Badme. Ethiopia has no assurance that Badme will be awarded to it by an aribitration tribunal. And should the "colonial boundaries" hypothesis of Eritrea prevail, Ethiopia may, in the final analysis, have to surrender Badme to Eritrea. The Ethiopian government has as yet not made an official response to Eritrean acceptance of the OAU proposal and the UN Security resolution to halt all hostilities on the border. It is, therefore, premature to conclude whether or not the conflict will come to a peaceful end. Should Ethiopia decide to maximize its military gains, it might want to penetrate further into Eritrea, especially in the Assab Region, to twist Isayas Afeworki’s arm and force him to make further concessions that are favorable to Ethiopia.

Apart from the slogans that go along with national sovereignity, there is nothing that either country can reap from that rocky wasteland of Badme. For one part, the two countries have as yet to come up with solutions to the problems revolving around bilateral trade, ports, currency, Eritrean citizens’assets in Ethiopia, and other issues underlying the conflict. The two countries may also have to work out how they will carry themselves as members of a common regional development community. It is unfortunate that these two countries have to engage in a devastating act of war before they could agree to negotiate in a civil manner. This is the paradox of African politics.

In contrast to the deliberate and coolheaded manner in which the Eritrean government has been carrying itself through the conflict, the Ethiopian leadership has for the most part been very irrational and hectic in its political endeavors. The deportation of close to 50,000 Eritreans from Ethiopia on the pretext of "national security" is one factor that casts doubts on the ingenuity of the Ethiopia leadership. Secondly, the incarceration of thousands of Eritrean youngsters and university exchange students (who just happened to be in Ethiopia at the time the conflict broke out) in swampy and mosquito infested concentration camps is something that is reminiscent of Nazi styled persecution of Jews in Europe. Thirdly, the decision of the Ethiopian government to foreclose Eritrean private properties and freeze individual bank accounts is a reactionary response to the conflict at the border. It looks like matters could easily being carried to extremities in Ethiopia with no room for rationalization. It is really a pity to see two brotherly countries inflicting unforgettable scars against each other.

The recent developments in Ethio-Eritrean relations introduce very novel and strange historical precedents in the Horn of Africa. Even Mengistu, who was referred to as the "Black Stalin" and known for his ferocity, has not, even for once, resorted to such wild indiscretions as bombing the Eritrean City of Asmara and deporting Ethiopians of Eritrean origin. What is surprising is all the heinous steps that were taken by the Ethiopian government have nothing to do with the war at the border. It appears that the predominately middle class Eritreans living in Ethiopia must have been an envy of the Tigrayan underclass for quite sometime. For decades, the Tigrayans have been marginilized from Ethiopian mainsream socio-economic life that they were not able to establish affluence in their own country. It looks like the border conflict has created a very good pretext for the Tigrayans to disenfranchise Eritreans and enrich themselves from the division of the spoils. The fact of the matter is that the Ethio-Eritrean conflict has sparked a lot of subdued Tigrayan anger and inferiority complex. So, the events that may unfold as the war progresses could be more disastrous than what have been witnessed so far. The situation is very fluid and unpredictable. That is why all peace-loving people should work very hard towards the resolution of this conflict.

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