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Flashback: The WOYANE Pendulum

Written by Dawit Habte

Saturday, 04 October 2008

The Ethiopian government’s current position on the Eritrea-Ethiopian Border Commission’s (EEBC) “final and binding” decision reminds me of a short conversation I had with an Eritrean father who was in his mid 90s when the governments of Eritrea and Ethiopia signed the Algiers Peace Agreement on December 12, 2000.

The Eritrean father had a radio on his hand and he never let his radio out of his arms reach. Every time I visited him, he was either in his bed with his radio close to his ears or on his wheelchair with his right arm carrying his radio.

God bless his soul, the old man died not long after the Algiers Agreement was signed. The old man’s understanding of his environment was beyond any one’s imagination. A few days after December 12, 2000, my friend and I were standing next to the elder father’s wheelchair. True to his academic credentials and his analytic skills, my friend was convinced that the Permanent Court of Arbitration would finally get the border issue resolved within relatively short period of time. My friend glanced at the elder father and said “we are done now. The courts will address the issues and we will have peace soon.” The father picked up his head, looked at my friend first and turned his head towards me. His face had this image of confusion and surprise while looking at both of us simultaneously. You know the look of your parents when you do or say something so unwise that they couldn’t find the words to express? That was exactly how the elder father was looking at us. He cleared his throat and looked back at my friend and said “are you out of your mind? You think you will sit with Tigrayans and resolve your issues on a table?” The elder father tried to hide his irritation and anger with a smile, but there was no way for us not to notice his frustration. We could clearly see that he was angry at the very thought that the Tigrayans can be trusted to abide by their promise. He finally said “just wait and see what they have got for you in the store”, and he put his head down. Little did we know about the Ethiopian Diplomatic Pendulum! Apparently, the Eritrean father had realized from a lifetime experience that the actors of the Ethiopian Diplomatic Pendulum are like a bad tailor; when asked to fix the leg, he would tighten the waist; when asked to fix the sleeves, he would shrink the neck; eventually the whole garment has lost its original shape.

A pendulum oscillates at a consistent rate and reaches its extreme positions of zero and hundred-eighty degrees, while the Ethiopian Diplomatic Pendulum swings between but never actually reaches its extreme positions of “unconditional and full acceptance” and “total rejection” of the “final and binding” legal decision. The best example of the Ethiopian Diplomatic Pendulum would be the graph of inversely related variables. In the graph of two inversely related variables, when the value of the independent variable (such as time) goes to infinity the dependent variable approaches zero but never actually reaches zero. In Ethiopia’s case, as we get closer to the date the EEBC hands its decision to the UN, Ethiopian government gets very close but never actually fully and unambiguously accepts the decision. The Ethiopian Diplomatic Pendulum seems to be the only practical example (in addition to your credit card balance) of a function that approaches zero but never actually reaches zero as the independent variable time goes to infinity.

In this document, a ninety-degree scale is used to prevent the reader from getting a headache and nausea. You can only imagine how many times the Ethiopian Diplomatic Pendulum has oscillated between its extreme points within the past five years.

Now that we are done with the prologue and disclaimers, here are the various points the Ethiopian Diplomatic Pendulum has passed through in the past five years.

Almost Zero Degree:

The Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC) was established on December 12, 2000 with a mandate “to delimit and demarcate the colonial treaty border based on pertinent colonial treaties (1900, 1902 and 1908) and applicable international law.” On April 13, 2002, the EEBC rendered its decision on the delimitation of the border between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

On April 13, 2002, the same day the EEBC handed its decision to Eritrea and Ethiopia, Seyoum Mesfin, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia, was all over the cameras announcing that the Ethiopian government “accepts and is ready to implement the legal decision of the Commission”. According to Seyoum Mesfin’s official statement at the time, it is Ethiopia that “provided the basic form and content to the implementation of the Algiers Agreement.” Without prior knowledge of the Ethiopian Diplomatic Pendulum, the United Nations Mission in Eritrea and Ethiopia (UNMEE) read Seyoum Mesfin’s statement literally and decided to send local and international journalists to the border area to report eye-witness accounts. The journalists traveled to the territories that were awarded to Eritrea. BBC, AFP, AP and other wire services flooded the media with their reports from Badme, Eritrea. Meles Zenawi and Seyoum Mesfin were in rage at the mention of Badme and Eritrea in the same sentence and demanded the expulsion of Ambassador Legwaila Joseph Legwaila, the Special Representative of the Secretary General and head of mission. Considering Legwaila’s political clout and his denial of prior knowledge of the journalists’ trip to the border area, Jean Victor Nkolo, the first Spokesman and Chief of Public Information Office, and Major General Patrick Cammaert, the first UNMEE Force Commander, were offered as sacrificial lambs. Jean Victor and Major General Patrick were officially declared persona non grata by the Ethiopia government and were subsequently expelled from the mission as the “organizers of the journalists’ trip to Badme”.

The expulsion of Jean Victor Nkolo and Major General Patrick Cammaert was a heavy price UNMEE had to pay for simply reading “accepts and is ready to implement the legal decision of the Commission” to mean just that. The career breaking crime that was supposedly committed by Jean Victor Nkolo and Major General Patrick Cammaert was that they didn’t know the Ethiopian politicians didn’t mean what they said. A character neither a Cameroonian nor a Dutch man can ever understand.

Ninety Degree Turn:

On May 13, 2002, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Meles Zenawi sent to the EEBC a 35-page document titled “Request for Interpretation, Correction and Consultation”. As they say, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it surely must be a duck. And “Request for Interpretation, Correction” is nothing short of an “appeal” to a “final and binding” decision. If his “interpretation, correction and consultation” (read appeal) of the “final and binding” decision is not accepted by the EEBC, in his letter, Meles Zenawi hinted the Commission that he was seeking “an alternative mechanism to demarcate the border”. The legal decision that Ethiopia was “ready to implement” on April 13 has suddenly needed an “interpretation” and “correction” by May 13 of the same year. Besides Eritrea’s full acceptance of the legal decision, it is everybody’s guess on what had transpired in Meles Zenawi’s mind in those thirty days between April 13 and May 13 of 2002.
Almost Hundred-Eighty Degree Turn:

The Algiers Agreement that the Ethiopian government claimed to have “provided the basic form and content to the implementation” has suddenly become an “unjust” one. And the court’s decision that was once hailed by the same Ethiopian government as EEBC’s “demonstration that peace prevails over war, and law over disorder” and Ethiopia was “ready to implement” has now become “illegal” and a decision that “could even affect the peace between countries that are friendly, let alone that of those like Ethiopia and Eritrea whose relations are already marked by a great deal of tension and uncertainty.” The Eritrean-Ethiopian Border Commission that was once hailed by the Ethiopia government for “discharging its duties with a sense of responsibility and great care” is now slandered by the same government as rendering “unjust and irresponsible decision”. The Ethiopian government’s position on a “legal and binding” decision finally made the progressive transformation of a hundred-eighty degree in one year’s period of time, April 13, 2002 through September 19, 2003. It was declared by the Ethiopian government that the Commission cannot be trusted to do any good job; an “alternative mechanism” has to be set by the witnesses of the Agreement, i.e. the U.S. and others to do demarcation. In other words the demand of Ethiopia became “don’t demarcate the border based on treaties but based on politics”.

Negative 90 Degree Turn:

Like an ordinary pendulum, Ethiopia’s Diplomatic Pendulum does not oscillate at a constant rate. It moves at a faster rate towards hundred-eighty degrees than coming back to zero degree. In November 25, 2004, Ethiopia declared that it accepts the Boundary Commission Decision “In Principle”. In June 8, 2007, Ethiopia’s position shifted to acceptance of the delimitation decision “without precondition”. It took the Ethiopian government only a month to “appeal” a decision they fully accepted and were prepared to implement (April 13, 2002 to May 13, 2002); while it took them tree years to shift from accepting a decision “in principle” to accepting it “without precondition”. It is mind boggling for a pendulum to take one month to make a ninety degree shift and three years for the same ninety degree rotation in reverse.

When will we ever see Zero Degree?

There is no question that Meles Zenawi’s latest statements of “Ethiopia would only react if there is full-scale invasion on the country's territory,” is meant to lay the ground work for post virtual demarcation. During his interview with Al Jazeera Television, Meles Zenawi described the EEBC virtual demarcation as a “legal nonsense”. The message is clear: demarcation or not Ethiopia will continue to occupy Eritrea’s territory defying international agreements and treaties. This is not Eritrea’s immediate problem. Once the EEBC hands over its decision to the United Nations on November 27, 2007, Ethiopia’s occupation of Eritrea’s territory becomes the UN’s problem. Virtual demarcation is an effective demarcation.

Ethiopia will eventually “accept and implement the legal decision of the Commission”, as Seyoum Mesfin announced on April 13, 2000, the same day the EEBC handed its decision to Eritrea and Ethiopia. The Eritrea-Ethiopia border will be demarcated according to the “colonial treaties (1900, 1902 and 1908) and applicable international law” as delimited by the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission. The question is when will the handlers of the clique on the helms of power in Ethiopia force them to respect the EEBC decision that soon will be part and parcel of the International Treaties of the United Nations records.

One day, the Marxist Leninist League of Tigray (MLLT), Union of Tigrayans for Democracy and Sovereignty (aka born-again Tigrayans), Coalition of Unity and Democracy (aka Kinjit), or one of the various nationalist movements including the Tigrayan Wolqayt will surely find the implementation of the “legal and binding” decision in their best interest. They will implement the decision either when climbing the ladders of power (as the current government did with the Eritrean referendum) or to remain in power (again as the current government will do when its survival is threatened).

We all know a pendulum never stops by itself unless there is a resistance. In the same manner, whoever comes to the helms of power in Ethiopia will implement the “final and binding” legal decision only when they feel a resistance to their power monopoly. One way or another, the EEBC decision will be implemented and the border will be fully demarcated. It is only a matter of time, and time is on Eritrea’s side. Eritrea has been vindicated. The government and people of Eritrea have been vindicated. The rest is history.

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